Methodology
StocksBotI read the filings so you don't have to.
Built by StocksBotIndependent lithium and small-cap researchLi3atlas is the data desk. The analysis, theses and models are on my channels.
SubstackDeep dives and the weekly lithium digestXDaily notes and new filingsYouTubeWalkthroughs of the map and the models
← Li3atlas map中文

Methodology

Li3atlas is compiled from company filings and official statistics; every data point is reviewed before publication. Each value links to the document it came from. Nothing is estimated: where a figure has not been published, the gap stays visible.

Sources

  • Company filings: annual, half-year and quarterly reports, Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve statements (JORC, NI 43-101, S-K 1300), annual reports on Form 10-K, 20-F and 6-K.
  • Exchange announcements: ASX, TSX/TSXV, HKEX, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, NYSE/Nasdaq, LSE and others: production updates, financing, FIDs, offtakes.
  • USGS: Mineral Commodity Summaries: world and country mine production of lithium (lithium content).
  • Government statistics: for example Australia's Resources and Energy Quarterly, national mining and energy agencies.
  • Customs: export and import volumes and unit values (China, Chile, Argentina, Australia), used as official market reference prices.
  • CABIA: China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance: monthly battery production and installations, by chemistry.
  • CAAM: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: monthly new-energy vehicle sales.
  • IEA: International Energy Agency: battery demand scenarios.

Satellite views are Copernicus Sentinel-2 images, checked against the site location before they are shown.

Conversion factors

All volumes are restated to lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) with fixed factors:

FromTo LCEUsed for
Spodumene concentrate SC6 (6% Li₂O)÷ 7.5 t SC6 per t LCE (volumes; rounded). Costs use the exact factor 40.44 ÷ (6.0% × 90%) = 7.49, see the table belowproduction, capacity
Spodumene concentrate, grade not stated÷ 8.0 t SC per t LCEproduction, capacity
Lithium hydroxide (LiOH·H₂O)× 0.88 (costs and prices per t LiOH ÷ 0.88)production, costs, prices
Lithium metal content (Li)× 5.323USGS and other official totals
Lithium carbonate (Li₂CO₃)× 1
Battery output reported in Ah (万Ah)GWh = Ah × V (nominal cell voltage, default 3.2 V for LFP)battery demand

For the cost curve the concentrate needed per tonne of LCE follows the grade: t concentrate per t LCE = 40.44 ÷ (Li₂O grade % × recovery), because Li₂CO₃ carries 40.44% Li₂O equivalent. At the default 90% recovery:

SC67.5
SC5.58.2
SC5.38.5
SC5.28.6
SC5.09

Implied cost

Where a company publishes no unit cost for an operation, Li3atlas computes one from the segment figures in its filing: segment cost of sales ÷ tonnes sold. The calculation is done in the database from the filed inputs and the result is labelled “Implied · no reported cost”. It is a fully loaded accounting cost (it includes depreciation, royalties and any purchased feed), so it is higher than, and not like-for-like with, a reported cash cost. Company totals are never split across assets.

Landed cost (cost curve)

The cost curve compares operations in US$ per tonne of LCE delivered as chemicals:

  • Mine cost: the reported unit cost per tonne of concentrate, at fixed FX rates, × tonnes of concentrate per tonne of LCE (grade and recovery above).
  • + Conversion: an assumption, not a reported figure. Default: China Merchant Toll US$3,500/t LCE. Presets: China Tier-1 Integrated US$2,800, China Merchant Toll US$3,500, China Marginal US$3,800, Western Refinery US$5,800, China Lepidolite (Mica) US$6,000; a reported ex-China conversion cost is offered when one is on file.
  • + Sea freight: optional (off by default), US$40 per tonne of concentrate.
  • + Royalty: 5% of the latest average realised SC6 price, on Australian mines (Western Australia rate), unless the reported cost already includes royalties.
  • Brine and integrated producers: are shown at their reported cost per tonne of LCE (per tonne of LiOH ÷ 0.88); no conversion is added.

All assumptions can be changed under “Economics” on the cost curve; the change applies to every page in your browser.

Forward supply and demand

History is official world mine production (USGS). Forward years hold the rest of the world at the last official year and add each asset's filed production plan, weighted by the risk of its stage:

StageWeight
Producing100%
Ramping95%
Construction85%
Development / DFS50%
PFS / scoping30%
Exploration0%
Curtailed (restart plan)50%

Processing loss: 5% of mined supply is deducted before it is compared with demand. Non-battery uses (glass, ceramics, greases): +8% on top of battery demand.

Lithium intensity

Battery demand is converted to lithium with 0.65 kg LCE per kWh for LFP cells and 0.7 kg LCE per kWh for NMC/NCA cells (including production scrap). These are assumptions and can be changed in the battery-demand panel. For each cell maker the intensity is weighted by the chemistry of its plants on Li3atlas, or the LFP/NMC average if none is on file.

In the forward model the intensity is weighted by the LFP share of China's battery installations over the latest twelve months reported by CABIA; until those figures are on file, LFP and NMC are weighted 50/50.

Country risk

Low, medium or high, based on the royalty regime, export rules and recent policy changes. Country notes are shown with their source.

Update cadence

  • Company data is reviewed as filings appear: quarterly and half-year reports, annual reports, resource statements and exchange announcements.
  • Official statistics are added when published: USGS once a year (January), customs data and CABIA/CAAM monthly.
  • Pages are rebuilt from the database at most every ten minutes. Every panel shows “As of” with the newest period or review date of the data it shows; each asset shows when it was last verified against a filing.

Corrections

If a figure is wrong or out of date, use “Report an error” on the asset or company page, or write to stocksbotee@gmail.com with the page link and, ideally, the document that shows the correct figure. Corrections are checked against the filing and published with their source and date in the asset's change history.

Report an error

Li3atlas is for information only and is not investment advice.

What changed in lithium, every week

New filings, stage changes and guidance updates across the assets on this map, in one short email. Open on Substack ↗

Compiled from company filings and official statistics; every data point is reviewed before publication and links to its source. For information only; not investment advice.
MapMethodologyReport an errorSubstackImpressumDatenschutz
Map outlines: Natural Earth via world-atlas.